What Makes a Decision Good

Most people judge a decision by what happened afterwards. If the result was good, the decision was good. If the result was bad, someone made a mistake. This habit is natural, and it teaches the wrong lessons. Results depend on the decision and on things outside anyone's control. A careful decision can turn out badly; a careless one can turn out well.

A better test asks: given what was known and could reasonably have been found out at the time, was the decision made well? This course uses six elements of decision quality to answer that question. Each one can be checked before the decision is made, which is when checking is most useful.

Worked example 1: a good decision with a bad result

A maintenance manager must decide whether to run a pump for two more weeks until a planned shutdown, or stop it now for repair. Vibration data shows a slow, steady rise, well below the alarm level. The vendor's guidance says the trend gives several weeks of margin. The manager decides to run, sets daily checks, and prepares a standby pump. Ten days later the pump fails suddenly from a defect that the data could not have shown. The result was bad. The decision, judged by the six elements, was good. Blaming the manager would teach the team to stop every pump at the first sign of change.

Worked example 2: a poor decision with a good result

A buyer chooses a new supplier after one phone call, with no references and no sample order. The supplier performs well. The team praises the quick decision. The process was weak: no alternatives, no information, no criteria. If the team copies this approach, the next supplier may not perform, and the cost will be much higher.